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10 Jan 2013

Emerging markets offset slowdown

A street scene in Turkey

There was strong expansion in Turkey and a return to manufacturing growth in China

The emerging markets drove the world economy forward in 2012, but at a slower pace than in recent years. The HSBC Emerging Markets Index (EMI) rose from 52.2 in 3Q to 52.9 in 4Q, helped by a recovery in manufacturing.

That is below the levels of the past four years, but signals that emerging countries remain strong and still more than offset economic weakness in the developed world. Employment increased at the strongest rate for six quarters, and inflationary pressures remain muted.

While China has yet to resume the pace of growth it once enjoyed, it is now a much bigger economy and as a result, its contribution to world growth continues to rise

Stephen King, HSBC Group Chief Economist, said: “Although hardly buoyant economic growth, recent improvements are encouraging, especially as complemented by encouraging signs for the early months of 2013.”

A return to manufacturing growth in China and Brazil and strong expansion in India, Mexico and Turkey were features of the fourth quarter. Overall manufacturing output, which had declined marginally in 3Q 2012, rose modestly in 4Q.

When manufacturing and services are combined, the BRIC economies all expanded in 4Q, with a pick-up in Brazil, solid progress in India, the best growth for two years in Russia, and relatively weak growth in China.

Encouragingly, new manufacturing orders rose at the fastest rate since 2Q 2011, led by Mexico, India and Russia. But new export business fell marginally for the fourth quarter in succession, after weak demand from advanced economies, notably the eurozone.

Stephen King said in the report: “The outlook for Chinese growth is improving; HSBC projects GDP growth of 8.6 per cent in 2013, up from 7.8 per cent in 2012. For the emerging world as a whole, HSBC expects growth of 5.4 per cent in 2013, up from 4.8 per cent in 2012.” He points out that while China has yet to resume the pace of growth it once enjoyed, it is now a much bigger economy and as a result, its contribution to world growth continues to rise.

HSBC Emerging Markets Index from 2006 to 2012

He added: “It’s no surprise that economies which have increased their exports to China – typically at the expense of exposure to the old world – have mostly enjoyed rapid gains in economic activity over the last decade.”
However, those economies less exposed to China have “mostly found themselves suffering from persistently disappointing GDP growth”.

The EMI is based on 23 Purchasing Managers’ Index™ (PMI™) surveys across 18 markets, and gives the earliest and most reliable indication of economic trends. Any reading above 50 signals expansion. The 4Q figure of 52.9 is positive but below the average over the four years since the 2008 financial crisis.

Brazil has not had the investment boom some expected ahead of the 2014 FIFA World Cup, while India has suffered power generation problems and transport shortfalls. The PMI surveys also cover the services sector, where output rose fractionally in 4Q from a four-quarter low in 3Q. Optimism among service firms is highest in Brazil and India, and relatively subdued in Russia and China.

The services sector is leading job creation, which accelerated in 4Q. But manufacturers have trimmed their workforces for five successive quarters.

Inflation picked up in 4Q, but remains weaker than the six-year average. The services sector’s input cost inflation in 4Q was the second weakest of any quarter in the past three years. But in manufacturing, the average cost of components rose at the fastest rate since 3Q 2011.

The HSBC EMI is calculated using the PMI™ data produced by the global financial information services company Markit.

The intellectual property rights to the HSBC Emerging Markets Index provided herein is owned by Markit Economics Limited. Any unauthorised use, including but not limited to copying, distributing, transmitting or otherwise of any data appearing is not permitted without Markit’s prior consent. Markit shall not have any liability, duty or obligation for or relating to the content or information (“data”) contained herein, any errors, inaccuracies, omissions or delays in the data, or for any actions taken in reliance thereon. In no event shall Markit be liable for any special, incidental, or consequential damages, arising out of the use of the data. Purchasing Managers' Index™ and PMI™ are trade marks of Markit Economics Limited, HSBC use the above marks under license. Markit and the Markit logo are registered trade marks of Markit Group Limited.

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